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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.37 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP