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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to CAR 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 21 for 13 yards (16-S.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model