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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 6-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.44 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model