4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to CAR 5, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 1 for -4 yards (46-P.Hesse). Penalty on ATL-46-P.Hesse, Horse Collar Tackle, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-13-T.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.11 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model