Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(2:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP

KICK -1.06 EP

31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
69% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model