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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.06 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP