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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 10-B.Robbins punts 37 yards to CLE 44, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.84 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 38, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model