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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to CIN 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.13 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model