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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP