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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to CLE 33, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.28 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model