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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(10:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 18 for -13 yards (95-M.Garrett).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model