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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(:32) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.56 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -1.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model