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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 10-B.Robbins punts 45 yards to CLE 37, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 41 for 4 yards (51-M.Bailey, 27-J.Battle).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.41 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 82, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model