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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 11

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model