Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 80

Chicago Bears 6 – Green Bay Packers 7

(5:38) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to GB 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Reed to GB 31 for 4 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model