Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 77

Chicago Bears 6 – Green Bay Packers 17

(8:20) 16-T.Gill punts 54 yards to GB 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at CHI 42 for 35 yards (43-D.Gates).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model