4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 24 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-38-I.Gaines, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.51 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP