4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 38 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to CHI 23, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 31 for 8 yards (34-J.Owens).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model