4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 18

Chicago Bears 14 – Green Bay Packers 38

What Actually Happened

(4:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 23-R.Johnson to GB 12 for 6 yards (25-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.56 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP