4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 28

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model