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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to CHI 29, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 37 for 8 yards (38-I.Gaines).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.03 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model