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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 73

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 16-T.Zentner punts 41 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.03 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model