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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 20

Houston Texans 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model