Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 77

Houston Texans 6 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(13:50) 16-T.Zentner punts 48 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model