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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 58

Houston Texans 6 – Baltimore Ravens 15

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 31-D.Pierce right tackle to HOU 42 for no gain (0-R.Smith, 58-M.Pierce).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.13 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model