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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 53
Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0
What Actually Happened
(10:59) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 36 for -11 yards (6-P.Queen).
The Three Options
GO
+0.51 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.41 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -3.26 EP
KICK
-1.94 EP
- 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 76% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT
-0.94 EP
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
