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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 13 at the 48
Houston Texans 9 – Baltimore Ravens 25
What Actually Happened
(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 85-N.Brown.
The Three Options
GO
-0.41 EP
What Happened
-
25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.83 EP
- 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -1.51 EP
KICK
-0.24 EP
Model's Pick
- 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
- 65% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
