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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 25 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to HOU 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.06 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP