Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 81

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(5:35) 16-T.Zentner punts 39 yards to BAL 42, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.08 EP
59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model