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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model