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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(11:58) (No Huddle) 5-A.Richardson up the middle to JAX 16 for no gain (95-R.Robertson-Harris).

The Three Options

GO +2.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model