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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to IND 33, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 37 for 4 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 85, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 43, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model