Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 79

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

(6:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to JAX 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-41-G.Stuard.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model