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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-E.Engram to IND 49 for no gain (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model