4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to IND 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model