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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at JAX 43 for 10 yards (20-N.Cross).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.66 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model