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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to IND 46 for 48 yards (20-N.Cross).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.91 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model