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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.35 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP