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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 35

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 22 for 13 yards (22-K.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.54 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model