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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to DEN 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.42 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP