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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 37

Denver Broncos 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 16-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP