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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to LAC 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 12-D.Davis to LAC 32 for 3 yards (20-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP