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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 81-D.Smythe pushed ob at LAC 32 for 10 yards (26-A.Samuel).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.56 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model