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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 31 – Miami Dolphins 30

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 11-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.15 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 7, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model