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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 34 – Miami Dolphins 36

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -9 yards (sack split by 15-J.Phillips and 20-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -0.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model