Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 55

New England Patriots 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to PHI 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.00 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model