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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 82

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-A.Siposs punts 50 yards to NE 32, Center-45-R.Lovato. 25-Ma.Jones pushed ob at PHI 47 for 21 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.91 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 40, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model