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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 52

New England Patriots 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to PHI 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-B.Covey to PHI 14 for 5 yards (3-M.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.05 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model