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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 84

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 10-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to NE 37, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 42, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model