Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 69

New England Patriots 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

(13:58) 17-B.Baringer punts 65 yards to PHI 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 25 yards (41-B.Schooler; 23-K.Dugger).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model